H1N1 STILL CIRCULATING

 

The CDC is encouraging more people to get vaccinated against the H1N1 virus.

• "Many people are still susceptible ... and would benefit from vaccination," says official
• At least 60 million Americans have received the H1N1 vaccine, says CDC official
• 136 million doses are currently available for states to order, official says

Washington (CNN) -- The H1N1 influenza virus is still circulating and causing illness, hospitalization and death, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday as officials made another call for vaccination.

"Many people are still susceptible to this virus and would benefit from vaccination," said Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC. "We want to avoid complacency. We have a very good supply of the H1N1 vaccine all around the country."
Schuchat estimated that at least 60 million Americans have received the H1N1 vaccine. She said 136 million doses are currently available for states to order and should be easily accessible through doctor's offices, local health departments, community and school clinics as well as pharmacies and retail centers.

Four states -- Delaware, New Jersey, Maine and Virginia -- still report widespread H1N1 activity. Schuchat said that while the number of people getting sick is declining, officials are still seeing more activity than is usual for this time of year. And it's all H1N1, as seasonal flu strains have yet to emerge she said.

According to the CDC, there was a slight increase in flu-like illness cases presenting at doctors offices and emergency rooms last week, and a rise in pneumonia and/or influenza deaths this past week.
Expecting the virus to continue circulating for some time, Schuchat is urging doctors to "stay vigilant" by continuing to test patients with severe respiratory illness in an effort to prevent additional cases. But she stressed vaccination is still the best course of action.

"I am concerned that people maybe complacent, that people may think this is all over. I would hate for people to make decisions thinking this is over and then get sick or severely ill," Schuchat said. Vaccinations provide a "chance for people to protect themselves and reduce the risk of serious complications. So I think complacency is probably our top enemy right now."
The CDC is kicking off National Influenza Vaccine Week this weekend, a campaign designed to encourage more to get vaccinated, particularly those considered to be at high risk for complications -- pregnant women, adults with chronic complications like emphysema, seniors and children who have yet to be vaccinated.

Schuchat said she doesn't know if the unusually cold temperatures sweeping the country will result in flu transmission, but vaccination will help reduce that risk.
With the flu season fully underway, health officials say now is the time for children under the age of 9 to receive a second dose of the H1N1 vaccine.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius visited Carlin Springs Elementary School in Arlington County, Virginia, Thursday, as more than 200 students lined up to receive a second round of the vaccine.

She praised Arlington County officials for their school-based flu clinics.

By Saundra Young CNN

January 7, 2010 8:30 p.m. EST

H1N1 STILL CIRCULATING

COMPARING FLU DEATHS

 PANDEMIC vs. SEASONAL

Pandemic (H1N1)

22 DECEMBER 2009 | GENEVA -- Efforts to assess the severity of the H1N1 influenza pandemic sometimes compare numbers of confirmed deaths with those estimated for seasonal influenza, either nationally or worldwide. Such comparisons are not reliable for several reasons and can be misleading.
Numbers of deaths for seasonal influenza are estimates. They use statistical models designed to calculate so-called excess mortality that occurs during the period when influenza viruses are circulating widely in a given population.

Estimates using all-cause mortality

The models use data, as recorded in death certificates and medical records, indicating mortality from all causes, and compare the number of deaths during epidemics of seasonal influenza with baseline data on deaths during the rest of the year. The assumption is that infections with influenza viruses contribute to the “excess mortality” observed during the influenza season.
During epidemics of seasonal influenza, around 90% of deaths occur in the frail elderly, who often suffer from one or more chronic medical conditions. Although influenza can worsen these conditions and contribute to death, testing for influenza viruses is not done in most cases, and deaths are usually attributed to an underlying medical condition.
Methods for estimating excess mortality were introduced in the 19th century to capture these influenza-associated deaths that would otherwise be missed. Such estimates have helped counter assumptions that influenza is a mild illness that rarely kills.

Laboratory-confirmed deaths

In contrast, numbers of deaths from pandemic influenza, as notified by national authorities and tabulated by WHO, are laboratory-confirmed deaths, not estimates. For several reasons, these numbers do not give a true picture of mortality during the pandemic, which is unquestionably higher than indicated by laboratory-confirmed cases.
As pandemic influenza mimics the signs and symptoms of many common infectious diseases, doctors often do not suspect H1N1 infection and do not test. This is especially true in developing countries, where deaths from respiratory diseases, including pneumonia, are common occurrences. Moreover, routine testing for pandemic influenza is costly and demanding, and beyond the reach of most countries.
When testing confirms H1N1 infection in patients with underlying medical conditions, many doctors record these deaths as due to the medical condition, and not to the pandemic virus. These cases are also missed in official statistics.
As recent studies have shown, some tests for H1N1 infection are not entirely reliable, and false-negative results are a frequent problem. Accurate test results further depend on how and when samples were taken. Even in the best-equipped hospitals, doctors have reported seeing patients with distinctive and virtually identical disease profiles, yet only some have positive test results.
Moreover, in a large number of developing countries, systems for vital registration are either weak or non-existent, meaning that most deaths are neither investigated nor certified in terms of the cause.

Younger age groups

Comparisons of deaths from pandemic and seasonal influenza do not accurately measure the impact of the pandemic for another reason. Compared with seasonal influenza, the H1N1 virus affects a much younger age group in all categories – those most frequently infected, hospitalized, requiring intensive care, and dying.
WHO continues to assess the impact of the influenza pandemic as moderate. Accurate assessments of mortality and mortality rates will likely be possible only one to two years after the pandemic has peaked, and will rely on methods similar to those used to calculate excess mortality during seasonal influenza epidemics.

...sourced from the WHO

COMPARING FLU DEATHS